The Interview: Though rare, earthquakes measuring 5.0 or above in Ethiopia ‘still pose significant risk to infrastructure, human safety’ - Geophysicist

Addis Abeba – A light earthquake struck near 9 p.m. on a Sunday night in late September 2024, originating from the Mount Awash Fentale area—an earthquake-prone zone. While initially classified as minor, seismic activity in the area intensified in the following weeks, including a 4.9-magnitude quake on 06 October. People felt this tremor not only in Awash Fentale area but also as far as the capital, causing widespread concern.

Since then, repeated earthquakes have been recorded, with tremors reaching Addis Abeba, Afar, Dire Dawa, and surrounding areas. Following these incidents, residents in Addis Abeba shared their experiences on social media, with many, particularly those in condominiums, evacuating as a precaution.

Experts attribute these seismic activities to the East African Rift System, one of the world’s most active geological features. Among the leading voices in Ethiopia is Professor Atalay Ayele, head of the Seismology and Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering Unit at Addis Ababa University. A geophysicist with a PhD from Uppsala University, Atalay has been instrumental in advancing Ethiopia’s seismic monitoring capabilities, which rely on a network of 10 stations equipped with broadband seismometers.

In an interview with Addis Standard’s Molla Mitiku, Atalay discussed Ethiopia’s vulnerability to earthquakes, the inadequacies of its seismic network, and the urgent need for improved disaster readiness. “Preparedness is key to reducing the risks associated with seismic events,” Atalay said, adding, “The government must prioritize strengthening its response to earthquake threats.”

He also highlighted the need for rigorous enforcement of Ethiopia’s building code, currently under review by the Parliament, to safeguard infrastructure and save lives. “A code alone, however, is insufficient unless it is rigorously enforced by the government,” Atalay stressed.

Excerpts.

AS: Could you explain the key geological factors that contribute to Ethiopia’s vulnerability to earthquakes?

Atalay: Ethiopia sits atop the dynamic East African Rift System (EARS), one of Earth’s most active geological features. This immense rift is constantly stretching and tearing apart the African continent, causing frequent seismic activity and volcanic eruptions. As the Earth’s crust fractures and pulls away, it triggers frequent seismic activity and volcanic eruptions, leaving an indelible mark on the Ethiopian landscape.

The EARS is a prime example of continental rifting, a geological process where the Earth’s crust stretches and thins, eventually leading to the formation of new oceanic. This process is particularly evident in the Great Rift Valley, a vast, fertile depression that runs through the heart of the country. This dramatic geological feature is home to some of the world’s most active volcanoes, including Erta Ale, a shield volcano renowned for its persistent lava lake.

AS: How often do earthquakes occur in Ethiopia, and what is their usual magnitude range?

Atalay: While large, destructive earthquakes are thankfully rare, smaller tremors are a regular occurrence in Ethiopia. The most powerful quake ever instrumentally recorded in the country reached a magnitude of 6.8 in 1906, centered near the Great Rift Valley. This event serves as a reminder of the region’s seismic potential.

Earthquakes measuring 5.0 or higher on the richer scale that have the potential to cause substantial damage are relatively uncommon. Nevertheless, they still pose a significant risk to infrastructure and human safety, particularly in regions with vulnerable buildings and populations.

Smaller quakes, typically around magnitude 2.0, happen almost daily along the East African Rift System. While these tremors are usually imperceptible to humans, they provide valuable data for scientists studying the region’s seismic activity and help us better understand the ongoing tectonic processes.

AS: Which areas in Ethiopia are most susceptible to earthquakes?

Atalay: The areas most at risk from earthquakes are those situated within or near the East African Rift System. Numerous towns and cities in the country, including Dessie, Dire Dawa, Adama, Arba Minch, Hawassa, and Addis Abeba, are vulnerable to earthquake-related damage.

The seismic activity in these areas is directly linked to the ongoing tectonic processes stretching and tearing apart the East African Rift System. While the frequency and intensity of earthquakes can vary, it’s crucial for these regions to be prepared for potential seismic events.

AS: Besides the potential risks, what advantages do the East African Rift System and its active geological features offer to Ethiopia?

Atalay: The tectonic forces shaping Ethiopia have not only created stunning landscapes but also played a significant role in the country’s rich history and cultural heritage. The Rift Valley’s fertile soils have supported human settlements for millennia, while its dramatic volcanic eruptions have shaped the region’s unique ecosystems.

As the East African Rift System continues to evolve, Ethiopia remains at the forefront of geological research, offering scientists a unique opportunity to study the Earth’s dynamic processes firsthand. Afar and Iceland are the only places on the planet where the transition between oceanic and continental rifts is visible on land. As a result, the Afar region remains one of the few natural laboratories in the world for conducting active rift studies. 

AS: In your assessment, how would you describe the general understanding of earthquakes and their potential damages in Ethiopia?

Atalay: The understanding of the exposure and vulnerability of Ethiopia for earthquake risk even at the government level is very poor. As a result, building capacity in equipment and trained manpower is very poor. As much attention is not given to the problem, creating awareness in the community is very weak. Many communities, particularly in rural areas, lack adequate awareness and preparedness measures.

The understanding of the exposure and vulnerability of Ethiopia for earthquake risk even at the government level is very poor.”

This lack of awareness can lead to inadequate preparedness and response efforts during seismic events. The existing seismic network is also insufficient to accurately detect and analyze seismic activity across the entire country. Addressing these challenges requires significant investments in seismic infrastructure, training programs for scientists and engineers, and public education campaigns.

AS: How do you assess the Ethiopian government’s current approach to monitoring and responding to earthquake threats?

Atalay: It is very weak, and a lot must be done. While the Ethiopian government has taken some steps to address earthquake risk, the current approach is still relatively weak, and significant improvements are needed. The country’s seismic monitoring network, though expanding, remains limited in its coverage and capabilities. This can hinder early warning systems and timely response efforts.

AS: What measures should be taken to mitigate the potential risks associated with earthquakes?

Atalay: In this context, a primary focus should be on strengthening the government’s response to earthquake threats. Achieving this requires the implementation of several key measures. Expanding the current seismic network to cover additional regions, particularly along the Rift Valley, is essential. Supporting research on earthquake hazards and risk assessment will enhance our understanding of seismic activity.

Additionally, implementing effective early warning systems can provide crucial time for individuals to take protective actions. Enforcing stringent building codes and standards is also vital to minimizing the impact of earthquakes on infrastructure.

AS: How prepared is Ethiopia for earthquakes, particularly regarding emergency response and disaster preparedness?

Atalay: There is a lot to be done in this regard. While there have been efforts to improve earthquake preparedness in Ethiopia, significant challenges remain. Key areas where improvements are needed include: Enhancing public awareness about earthquake hazards, early warning signs, and emergency response procedures is crucial. Developing comprehensive emergency response plans at the community, regional, and national levels is essential.

Strict enforcement of building codes and standards can significantly reduce the risk of building collapse during earthquakes. Regular drills can help communities practice emergency response procedures and build resilience and Empowering communities to take ownership of their safety and preparedness can enhance their resilience. By addressing these areas, Ethiopia can significantly improve its capacity to respond to earthquakes and minimize their impact on communities.

AS: The building code governing construction in Ethiopia is currently under review by the House of Peoples’ Representatives. What key elements should be included in the code to establish construction standards that ensure earthquake resilience?

Atalay: Improving building codes is a critical element in the construction of earthquake-resistant structures. While no building code is flawless, as all are initially based on limited data, it is essential to have a comprehensive and current code in place. A code alone, however, is insufficient unless it is rigorously enforced by the government.

Several key considerations for improving building codes and construction standards include: adopting performance-based design standards to ensure buildings can withstand seismic forces; conducting detailed seismic hazard assessments to identify areas with higher seismic risk and inform appropriate adjustments to building codes; regularly updating building codes to incorporate advancements in engineering knowledge and seismic research; and ensuring effective enforcement of building codes to guarantee compliance and minimize risks.

While the Ethiopian government has taken some steps to address earthquake risk, the current approach is still relatively weak.”

Additionally, rigorous quality control and supervision during construction are essential to prevent errors and ensure adherence to the code. Educating builders, engineers, and the public about the importance of seismic design and construction practices can also raise awareness and promote compliance.

AS: What long-term strategies would you recommend for structurally reducing earthquake risks?

Atalay: Building sufficient capacity to monitor earthquake activity, supported by adequate funding and logistical resources from the government is essential. Establishing an entity that is accountable to the highest level of government is critical to effectively reducing earthquake risks in Ethiopia.

Investing in advanced seismic monitoring networks will enhance the detection and analysis of seismic activity, enabling the implementation of early warning systems and more accurate risk assessments. Additionally, supporting research on earthquake hazards, fault mechanics, and seismic risk assessment will deepen our understanding of the country’s seismic potential. AS