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Op-ed: Ethiopia’s High-Stakes Game: Navigating fragility amid Somalia’s diplomatic maneuvers, Egypt’s military presence

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi (right) and Somali President Hassan Mohamud (Photo: Somaliguardian)

By Mohamud A. Ahmed

Addis Abeba – Somalia stands precariously at the intersection of domestic fragility and external exploitation, with its sovereignty increasingly compromised by geopolitical maneuvers from regional powers. From Cairo to Asmara, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s recent international engagements suggest a vision for Somalia’s global positioning. However, beneath the surface lies a troubling reality: Somalia risks being reduced to a pawn in the Horn of Africa’s high-stakes chessboard, with far-reaching implications for Ethiopia’s stability and the region at large.

Egypt’s Encroachment: A Trojan Horse in Somalia?

Egypt’s proposed involvement in the African Union Somalia Transition Mission (AUSSOM) under the pretense of counterterrorism support cloaks a deeper, more strategic agenda. For decades, Egypt’s geopolitical ambitions have been intrinsically tied to its historic rivalry with Ethiopia, particularly over the Nile and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). By embedding itself in Somalia’s fragile security architecture, Egypt seeks to establish a foothold perilously close to Ethiopia’s borders, leveraging Somalia as a potential pressure point in future confrontations.

While Somalia appears to gain military training, economic aid, and diplomatic engagement through the Cairo Declaration, the long-term cost may well be its sovereignty. This alignment risks transforming Somalia into a proxy battleground for Egypt’s regional rivalries, alienating neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya, whose stabilization efforts have historically underpinned Somalia’s fragile peace.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s diplomatic overtures, though presenting an image of a proactive leader, have raised doubts about his political maneuverability. Critics argue that his strategy of seeking to align with divergent, and at times conflicting, regional interests risks alienating key stakeholders, both domestically and internationally. This approach has cast doubt on whether his leadership is genuinely committed to defeating Al-Shabaab and ISIS or more focused on consolidating power through tenuous alliances.

Internally, Somalia’s federal structure is fraying under mounting pressure. Two major states within the federal framework have outright rejected recent proposals to amend the constitution—a move perceived by many as an attempt to entrench the president’s authority and pave the way for a term extension under shaky electoral conditions. This rejection exacerbates an already fragile political environment, undermines the credibility of the federal government, and further complicates the success of the AUSSOM mission. Security experts caution that internal divisions not only embolden extremist organizations like Al-Shabaab and ISIS but also cast doubt on the mission’s ability to bring lasting peace to Somalia.

Recent statements from Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, assuring neighboring countries that Egypt’s involvement in Somalia’s peace mission poses no threat to their sovereignty, have been met with skepticism. Notably absent in these remarks was any direct mention of Ethiopia—a conspicuous omission given the historical tensions between the two nations. While Egypt claims its mission is focused solely on counterterrorism and aiding Somalia’s stability, experts remain unconvinced, viewing this rhetoric as a smokescreen for broader geopolitical ambitions.

For Ethiopia, the critical question is whether to cautiously engage with Egypt’s plan in Somalia or to resist outright, given its potential implications for Ethiopia’s own security. Ethiopia must weigh the risks and benefits of cooperation, understanding that Somalia’s next moves in finalizing its engagement on the peace mission could reveal Egypt’s true intentions. Somalia’s ability to safeguard its sovereignty while leveraging external support will be pivotal in determining the mission’s legacy and its broader impact on the Horn of Africa.

The Ripple Effect: Ethiopia’s Strategic Calculations

For Ethiopia, Somalia’s deepening ties with Egypt are not merely a bilateral issue; they represent a direct challenge to the Horn’s balance of power. Ethiopia, long a stabilizing force in the region, must now contend with the prospect of an emboldened Egypt consolidating influence on its southern flank. Such developments threaten to exacerbate existing tensions, jeopardizing Ethiopia’s leadership role and its hard-earned peace dividends in the region.

Ethiopia’s response must be measured but resolute. Enhanced intelligence gathering, robust diplomatic engagement with Somali stakeholders, and coalition-building within the Horn of Africa are critical. Ethiopia must also project its contributions to Somalia’s stabilization—through peacekeeping missions and development partnerships—underscoring the futility of external interference by actors like Egypt.

Somalia’s entanglements with Eritrea and Egypt, framed as partnerships, increasingly resemble dependencies. The Cairo Declaration’s emphasis on military cooperation and external involvement in Somalia’s affairs risks undermining its sovereignty. President Mohamud’s focus on symbolic alignments, rather than actionable domestic strategies, paints a grim picture of a nation at the mercy of external powers.

Ethiopia must remain vigilant. Somalia’s internal struggles, coupled with its susceptibility to external manipulation, pose a risk not only to its own stability but to the entire Horn of Africa. By fostering deeper ties with Somali civil society and regional leaders, Ethiopia can counterbalance Egypt’s influence while promoting a cooperative framework for regional stability.

Somalia’s trajectory hangs in the balance. Will it emerge as a player capable of asserting its interests, or will it succumb to the role of a pawn in larger geopolitical schemes? President Mohamud’s legacy will ultimately depend on his ability to reconcile his international ambitions with the pressing needs of his people. For Ethiopia, the stakes are equally high. As the cornerstone of stability in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia must confront this challenge with clarity, courage, and an unyielding commitment to its regional leadership.

The chessboard is set, and the pieces are moving. Somalia and Ethiopia must decide their roles—not just in the Horn of Africa’s unfolding drama but in shaping a future that prioritizes sovereignty, security, and the shared aspirations of their peoples. AS


Mohamud A. Ahmed (Prof.) is a columnist, political analyst, and researcher at Greenlight Advisors Group, Somali Region State.

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