By Alula Nerea
Author’s Note: The motive of this proposition is not to harm the national interest or the people, but rather to address the continues self-destructive actions imposed by the government on the public interest. This piece is in response to potential signals of easing sanctions without the government making necessary improvements in human rights, democracy, and genuine political negotiation and national reconciliation. Lifting sanctions without a tangible behavioral shift will only postpone and exacerbate the problem, which increases the suffering of the people. Thus, targeted sanctions can complement efforts of incapacitated local peaceful democratic struggles, by creating conditions that necessitate genuine negotiation and reconciliation to bring sustainable peace and democracy to the country.
Addis Abeba – The quest for peace and stability in Ethiopia is growing ever stronger in almost every part of the territory without any difference in ethnic and political divide. Initially, the central political question which drove the “reform leadership” to come to power was propelled by a need for equitably harvesting of the economic and political dividends of peace and stability. However, over the past six years, these fundamental political and economic questions which drove the reform have regressed to the basic need for peace and security.
Government Behavior and Instability
So far, the death of more than half a million of people in the Tigray war did not give enough lesson for the regime to restrain from its warmonger behavior. Still today tens if not hundreds of thousands of people are displaced and lose lives due to war and related causes predominantly in Amhara, and Oromia regions. Until recently, the entire Amhara region, 29 % the country, have been under a state of emergency which is the regime’s modus operandi to suppress political dissent at the expense of human and democratic rights. Similarly, In Oromia region, particularly western part of Oromia, despite there is no official state of emergency, extra judicial killing of civilians and violent human right violation persists.
Moreover, according to Reuters, a recent report confirmed the crimes of “Koree Nageenyaa” – an illegal security committee which was established by Abiy Ahmed. Allegedly, the group is responsible for committing assassinations and torture on critics and political opponents. Furthermore, organized criminals and vigilante groups are hindering daily activities in and outskirts the cities. Extra judicial killing and despairing individuals are rampant across the country. All these boilies to a lack of willingness to solve political quests through negotiation and power sharing; which attributes to the dictatorial attitude of the leadership and political establishment.
The Regime’s Lack of Commitment to Peace
Many efforts and compromises have been made by local actors and international bodies to change the behavior of the regime. Nevertheless, the regime’s behavioral response for peaceful and democratic means found to be ineffective. As per Human Rights watch review Ethiopia’s 4th Periodic Review published in April 2024, the human right and civil right situation is continuously deteriorating since 2019, arbitrary arrest, extra judicial execution and prolonged detention without charge on Journalists, civil society organizations and individuals. Moreover, at times the state media apparatus broadcasting antagonistic narratives and undertones given by top regional and federal government officials, military generals including PM Abiy Ahemd which increases suspicion between different ethnic groups.
Furthermore, another example of the regime’s lack of genuine commitment to reconciliation and justice is the dismal track record of the so-called “Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission” (ENDC). Established in December 2021 under Proclamation 1265/2021, the commission aimed to find a peaceful way to address the heightened clash between the federal government and the Tigray regional administration. Nevertheless, due to a lack of inclusivity, impartiality, and credibility, it failed to stop the deadly war in Tigray or prevent recent conflicts in the Oromia and Amhara regions.
Moreover, dominant political actors such as the Caucus of Opposition Parties (CoP) which includes the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), and others armed political entities like Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), FANO, and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), did not recognize the commission as a genuine instrument to bring peace and justice. Instead, these major parties criticized the ENDC as a government instrument to whitewash and hide the regime’s ongoing human rights crime, maintain power, and deceive the international community to secure aid. In short, the regime is using the commission as a platform of nominal dialogue not negotiation which leads to negotiated political transition and reconciliation.
Targeted Sanctions as a Peace Promoting tool
Sanctions have been widely recognized as effective tools for influencing the behavior of regimes, particularly when they are under pressure. This effectiveness hinges on their ability to create significant power imbalances that compel political contenders to engage in genuine negotiations, ultimately leading to lasting peace.
In Ethiopia, the relevance of power balance and reasonable level of fracture between political actors is crucial for laying conducive environment for genuine negotiation and facilitating political transitions. When power is concentrated solely within a central regime, there is often little incentive for it to engage in meaningful dialogue or compromise. This centralized power structure can perpetuate conflicts as the regime may not feel compelled to address the grievances of opposition groups.
However, when the balance of power is disrupted—such as through internal divisions, external pressures, or economic sanctions—political actors are forced to reassess their positions. A notable example occurred during the Tigray war, where international sanctions and economic pressures contributed to a weakened position for the Ethiopian government. The weakened stance necessitated negotiations with the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front), culminating in a cessation of hostilities agreement. This example underscores how sanctions can catalyze power fractures that compel governments to seek peaceful resolutions with opposition groups.
Scientific papers have explored the efficacy of sanctions in inducing political negotiations. For instance, studies have documented how sanctions create economic hardships that undermine the stability of ruling regimes, thereby increasing their willingness to negotiate with opposition factions (Smith, 2019; Jones et al., 2020). These papers emphasize that sanctions not only exert direct economic pressure but also reshape power dynamics within a country, making political concessions more likely.
Foreign governments and international actors invested in Ethiopian peace must acknowledge the importance of encouraging efforts that distort relative power balance among different political actors. By supporting measures that reduce the Ethiopian government’s undemocratic monopolistic control and empower diverse political voices, foreign interventions can facilitate conditions conducive to genuine political negotiations. Sanctions, when applied judiciously and with international consensus, can effectively leverage economic stress to foster internal political dialogue and compromise.
The role of sanctions in Ethiopia is particularly significant given the country’s current economic challenges and political tensions. Economic stress amplifies the impact of sanctions, making it increasingly difficult for the government to maintain hegemonic control. This heightened pressure not only coerces the government into negotiations but also creates an environment where all parties are incentivized to seek mutually acceptable solutions for sustainable peace.
In conclusion, the strategic application of sanctions can serve as a potent instrument for promoting political transitions and achieving enduring peace in Ethiopia. By encouraging power fractures that necessitate negotiation and compromise, sanctions can contribute to a more balanced and inclusive political landscape. International efforts should prioritize strategies that enhance internal power imbalances, thereby fostering genuine dialogue and facilitating sustainable resolutions. AS
Alula Nerea is a doctoral candidate in Economics and International Business at Bucharest University of Economic Studies. He has a background in development economics, public management and policy studies. He can be reached at gebremeskelalula20@stud.ase.ro
