Opinion: Tigray at Crossroads: Factionalism, governance paralysis, and looming risk of civil war
By Benedict Michael
Addis Abeba – Tigray, a region that has endured years of war and devastation, now faces a political crisis that threatens its fragile stability. The power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) has resulted in the formation of two rival factions, each with its own leadership, support base, and administrative influence. The inability of the Tigray Interim Administration to assert control over the entire region has further complicated the situation. With political disputes spilling into military affairs and fears of external interference growing, Tigray is at serious risk of descending into another devastating civil war.
The TPLF, once a unified political force, is now deeply divided.
The faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD) controls the Central and Northwestern Zones of Tigray and rejects the authority of the Tigray Interim Administration. It has also appointed parallel local administrators, including a separate mayor in Mekelle, and has strong military backing.
The faction led by Getachew Reda, president of the Tigray interim administration, governs the Southern, Western, Eastern, and Southeastern Zones. As the official leadership recognized after the Pretoria Agreement, it struggles to establish authority in areas under Debretsion’s control.
This division has fueled governance paralysis, with each faction governing its own territories independently. The lack of unity has deepened political instability, weakened state institutions, and created a power vacuum that threatens Tigray’s long-term stability.
The split within the TPLF has resulted in an administrative deadlock, especially in Mekelle. The appointment of rival mayors by both factions has rendered the city’s administration ineffective. Beyond Mekelle, the Tigray Interim Administration has failed to extend governance to Central and Northwestern Zones, where Debretsion’s faction operates independently. This has led to a fragmented and dysfunctional governance system.
Tensions have escalated, marked by open confrontations between the factions. Recently, Getachew was prevented from holding meetings in Shire and Axum, strongholds of Debretsion’s faction, while Debretsion himself faced resistance in the Southern Zone.
These incidents highlight the reality that Tigray is no longer governed as a single entity but as a collection of competing political zones.
An alarming development in this crisis is the involvement of Tigray Forces in political disputes with group of army commanders, calling themselves “Core and Above Core,” publicly declared their support for Debretsion’s faction. Other high-ranking military figures, including Generals Wedi Asheber and Wedi Antru, opposed this move, warning that military involvement in politics is a dangerous precedent.
This politicization of the regional military stems from the failure to separate party and state in Tigray. The TPLF’s historical monopoly over governance, security, and public institutions left no room for an independent administration. Now, with the party divided, the regional military itself is at risk of fragmentation, increasing the likelihood of armed conflict.
On the other hand, Tigray’s internal divisions have created opportunities for external interference, further destabilizing the region.
Although unconfirmed, some reports suggest that Debretsion’s faction is aligning with Eritrea’s ruling party, the People’s Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), despite the historical enmity between Asmara and the TPLF. Meanwhile, Getachew’s faction is seen aligning itself with the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) and the federal government of Ethiopia.
These alignments not only intensify factional tensions but also risk turning Tigray into a battleground for proxy conflicts. If these external influences persist, the region could face renewed violence with far-reaching consequences.
The underlying cause of Tigray’s political crisis is the lack of independent state institutions. The TPLF’s long-standing dominance over governance and security structures meant that when the party fractured, the entire system collapsed.
This crisis could have been avoided if the Tigray Interim Administration had established an inclusive political transition, allowing opposition parties to participate in governance. A neutral military and independent judiciary would have also contributed to stability. However, by maintaining TPLF’s control over the state, the Interim Administration lost legitimacy and fueled factional disputes. Without structural reforms, Tigray’s instability will persist.
The Future of Tigray Hangs in the Balance
With political factionalism, military intervention, and external alignments pushing Tigray toward civil war, international pressure is urgently needed to prevent another humanitarian disaster.
Diplomatic mediation is necessary, with the African Union (AU), United Nations (UN), and Western governments stepping in to mediate between TPLF factions before violence escalates.
International actors should pressure both sides to accept a neutral peace process led by independent mediators.
Restoring administrative unity is crucial. The Tigray Interim Administration must be restructured to ensure political inclusivity, incorporating all parties and factions in governance. Parallel administrative structures must be dismantled, and a functioning transitional government must be established.
Ensuring the neutrality of the Tigray Forces is also a priority. The international community must demand that all military leaders withdraw from political disputes and commit to a neutral security structure.
Military reform must be prioritized to prevent the Tigray Forces from being used as a tool for factional interests.
Preventing external interference is critical. The UN and AU should monitor and prevent external actors (Eritrea and Ethiopia) from exploiting Tigray’s internal divisions for their own political gains. Any political alignment with Eritrea or Ethiopia must be handled carefully, as it risks escalating tensions beyond Tigray’s borders.
Tigray is at a crossroads: either its leaders and people choose peaceful reconciliation, or they risk another devastating civil war that could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa. The TPLF factions, military leaders, and civil society must recognize that continued political fragmentation will only bring further suffering.
Meanwhile, the international community must act decisively—not just with words but with real diplomatic pressure—to prevent Tigray from descending into chaos. Without urgent intervention, the region could once again become an epicenter of destruction, with catastrophic consequences for its people and beyond. AS
Benedict Michael is an independent writer.
