In-depth: Underlying proliferation of armed conflicts and worsening security crisis in Ethiopia

By Abdi Biyenssa @ABiyenssa

Addis Abeba – Ethiopia has been embroiled in prolonged militarized conflict since 2019, a year after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power, primarily involving government forces, sub-state and non-state actors. Notable instances include the recent Tigray war and ongoing militarized conflicts in the Oromia and Amhara regions. 

Despite a peace deal between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF that ended the two-year war, widespread security issues continue to linger in the Tigray region as the implementation of the agreement, particularly the return of IDPs, and DDR for Tigrayan fighters drags on for several reasons. In Oromia and Amhara, the two largest regions, militarized conflicts between government forces and armed groups, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and Fano, respectively, have crippled socio-economic activities, and endangered the safety and security of civilians.

Elsewhere, leaning on arms to settle disputes have increased significantly. For example, in the often idyllic Southern Ethiopia region, an informal armed group brazenly assumed control and imposed their own governance over a small kebele adjacent to Arbaminch, called Kola Shara, maintaining their hold for an astonishing six-month span. In August 2024, a tumultuous clash erupted between regional government forces and the informal armed group, resulting in the tragic loss of 17 lives and inflicting numerous injuries. The confrontations stemmed from opposition towards an initiative to integrate the surrounding areas including Kola Shara into the jurisdiction of Arba Minch city.

Inter regional armed clashes such as between the Somali and Afar regions as well as persistent incidents of armed confrontations within regions such as Central Ethiopia and Gambella continue to pose a significant security threat. 

According to a report by Ethiopia Peace Observatory (EPO), a conflict mapping initiative by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), 1018 battles took place between April 2023 and April 2024 in Ethiopia. In the month of December 2023 for example, the country recorded 177 political violence events and 479 reported fatalities.

Experts attribute the proliferation of armed conflicts and the ever worsening security crisis in Ethiopia to multiple causative factors. 

Democracy and political culture

Michael Woldemariam, a political scientist who lectures at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland argues that the key issue fueling the increasing prevalence of conflict across Ethiopia over the last few years has been the absence of a broadly accepted roadmap and structure for the country’s post-2018 political transition. “Without some minimal consensus on how a transition to a new governing system would be arranged—rules of the game so to speak—political differences between Ethiopia’s various power blocs were always likely to spill over into violence,” he asserted.

Michael stated that although there have been peaks and valleys in terms of the intensity of their operations, insurgent groups have been with Ethiopia for generations, making the problem deeply structural which stems from lack of inclusive, broadly agreed upon governing structures. “Those with power in Ethiopia have tended to monopolize it historically; while those challenging the status quo have often not genuinely championed real democratic transformation. In this context, winner-takes-all politics seems to carry the day,” he remarked. 

Kjetil Tronvoll, professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at Oslo New University College also believes that despite the transition exacerbating the security crisis by creating additional challenges, the core issues driving Ethiopia’s current security crisis are more historical and structural. 

“Competing ethno-nationalism, conflicting ideologies, differing historical interpretations, and disputes over the state’s structure (unitary, federalist, confederalist, or dissolved), communal conflicts among different communities and geopolitical tensions with neighboring countries, compounded by failed democratization and centralization efforts further exacerbate the situation,” he stated.

According to professor Kjetil, political violence is deeply ingrained in the Ethiopian political system and culture. “Ethiopia has a long history of mass violence, where it is often seen as a means to seize power and maintain control. Both state and non-state actors have a habit of resorting to violence if their interests are not met, leading to a cycle of violence,” he stated. He further elucidated that the state lacks representative institutions and the institutional capacity to address the diverse interests of various actors and reconcile conflicting visions.

Mengistu Assefa, a program manager at the Center for Advancement of Rights and Democracy (CARD) lamented that democratic deficits; the failure to build a robust democratic system that adequately addresses issues of equality, human rights, and the rule of law has eroded public trust in the government and its institutions. Political institutions and political processes have become spaces of contention rather than spaces of dialogue and consensus, he asserted.

Furthermore, conflicts have left deep scars and unresolved grievances that continue to fuel instability, Mengistu stated, adding that “they have weakened the central government’s legitimacy and control, fueled the sharpening of ethnic nationalism, and made it harder to establish a cohesive national identity”. The Tigray conflict, for example, has complicated the issues of historically contested territories, resulting in unspeakable atrocities and further complicating the already thorny issue of who should control the fertile lands, he remarked.

Jan Zahorik (PhD), a lecturer of African Studies at the University of West Bohemia in Pilsen, Czech Republic, said the lack of democratic structure and inclusive policies and the nature of politics, which is a winner-takes-all policy, creates a narrow space for consensus and dialogue in Ethiopia, leading to the the militarization of the country. He further stated that the militarization can be seen internally resulting from various factors such as socio-economic crisis, unresolved ethnic rivalries and border issues, the absence of national dialogue, and from an external context aligning with interests from Sudan, Egypt, and Eritrea.

Dr Zahorik also argued that Ethiopia’s federal structure, misrepresented by its supporters and detractors, has contributed to the security crisis, even though it isn’t the sole cause of the country’s security problems. “The federalism overly emphasizes ethnicity, lacking true federalism, shared rule, or self-rule, as governance is dominated by a single party. This results in a lack of autonomy, equality, and respect across regions and ethnicities. While federalism is beneficial, it cannot function without democratic norms, culture, and institutionalization. In Ethiopia, federalism exists more in theory than in practice,” he said.

Concurring with Dr Zahorik, Mengistu also noted that the clash of visions between proponents of a strong centralized state and advocates of regional autonomy further complicates the situation. Ethiopia’s institutions, including the judiciary and security forces, have encountered difficulties in maintaining stability amidst these complex dynamics, he stated.

Ethnic diversity and competing Ethno-nationalisms

According to Mengistu, the competition for power among different ethnic and political groups in Ethiopia has intensified over time, with elites representing diverse ethnic backgrounds engaging in a struggle for influence, often prioritizing their group’s interests over national unity. This power struggle has significantly contributed to the country’s instability and ongoing conflicts.

He asserted that mis-managed ethnic diversity has led to dangerous rivalries and unresolved political and economic grievances. “The former TPLF-dominated government, for example, marginalized groups like the Oromo and Amhara, fueling resentment and political mobilizations along ethnic lines. The current government also faces accusations of favoring Oromo nationalist agendas over other groups’ interests, while some Oromo political groups claim it promotes a pan-Ethiopian agenda undermining the Oromo cause. These conflicting perceptions and resentments risk deepening societal divisions and perpetuating cycles of rivalry and conflict,” he stressed.

“Ethiopia’s unresolved national identity and unity issues, which can be attributed to the lack of a political system that settles national identity disputes, has intensified disagreements over ethnic and Ethiopian identity, fueling exclusionary policies and violence,” Mengistu added.

Michael, while agreeing with Mengistu that competing ethno-nationalisms are a major source of conflict, he underscored that polarizing identity politics are not unique to Ethiopia. “Instead, what is catalyzing conflict is the absence of a broadly inclusive set of political institutions that can mediate the country’s most tense fault lines and channel political competition towards more peaceful modes of action. Unfortunately, this is not something that can be fixed overnight—these kinds of institutions have been neglected for decades and will take time and significant political struggle to build,” he remarked.

For Dr Zahorik ethno-nationalism in a country where more than 80 ethnic groups exist is normal. However, he argued that ethnicity has become a fetish in Ethiopia, probably more than in any other African country, and in the absence of civic nationalism and the existence of radical competing ethnic nationalisms, the fetishization contributed to a continued reinterpretation of history, selective manipulation of all kinds of historical facts and events, and application of current knowledge and views on events that happened a hundred or more years ago. This has only contributed to the rise of historical revanchism, historical grievances, and animosity, which serves certain people to better mobilize the less educated and radicalized youth (on all sides), he asserted.

Socio-economic marginalization

The inability to ensure a material foundation of stability and democracy through inclusive economic development and fair distribution of resources has undermined the social contract between the state and its citizens, with widespread poverty, unemployment, and perceived inequalities fueling grievances, Mengistu stated.

He added that land, a crucial resource in Ethiopia, has been a focal point of disputes over ownership among various regions and community groups such as Amhara, Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz, Southern Ethiopia, Somali, and Afar. “Ethnic groups frequently assert competing claims to specific territories, leading to heightened tensions and clashes. The failure to effectively address these land-related tensions and conflicts has resulted in multiple episodes of violence,” he noted.

Corruption, governance failures, and a lack of accountability have eroded public trust in the government whose forces reportedly commit atrocities with impunity, while political, civil, and media freedoms are increasingly restricted, echoing past repressive measures, Mengistu noted, adding that these issues contribute to the rise of armed groups and hinder conflict resolution efforts. “The Ethiopian state faces significant challenges, including widespread violence, a humanitarian crisis, and an inability to maintain control over the legitimate use of force, highlighting its fragility”.

Dr Zahorik too argued that socio-economic crisis is another major issue exacerbating insecurity in Ethiopia, marked by rising crime rates and surging rural and urban disparities, including within Addis Abeba. This increase in crime is partly due to the Tigray war and conflicts in Oromia and Amhara but also stems from the broader socio-economic crisis.

“Ordinary people’s salaries in Ethiopia are insufficient to cover basic needs and rent, with prices of teff, oil, and other essentials rising alarmingly. About two-thirds of Ethiopians live in desperation due to conflicts, turmoil, insecurity, or socio-economic troubles. The severe economic hardships and increasing commodity prices pose significant threats to the stability of the country,” he stated.

He criticized PM Abiy Ahmed’s focus on constructing parks, museums, and innovation centers, which do not generate jobs for unemployed youth. “The government aims to showcase Ethiopia as unique in Africa, neglecting the millions living on one dollar a day who see no benefits from these projects,” he noted.

The experts highlight that Ethiopia’s security crisis requires a comprehensive approach to addressing historical grievances, marginalization, and power distribution as conflicts stem from political, economic, and social grievances among various groups. 

“A renegotiation of the federal system and clarification of power relations, territorial claims, and ethnic identity’s role in politics are necessary. Violent conflicts must end first, followed by a credible, inclusive national dialogue involving all stakeholders. The current process lacks legitimacy and popularity. Addressing historical grievances, ensuring accountability for atrocities, and promoting reconciliation are crucial for achieving lasting peace and building a cohesive national identity,” Mengistu remarked.

“Making Ethiopia stable and getting it back to the path of prosperity and growth can be achieved through the implementation of real inclusive democratic policies, which can create trust among the ethnically diverse populations. And this requires wise leadership from every corner,” Dr Zahorik stated. AS