By Benedict Michael
Addis Abeba – The Tigray region is facing one of its most perilous moments since the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022, as deep divisions within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) have now extended into the military. The ongoing political crisis, marked by a factional split within the TPLF, has escalated into military involvement, with commanders openly taking sides in what was widely seen as a dangerous and destabilizing move.
This intervention has been met with widespread condemnation from political parties, civil society organizations, and activists, who argue that the military’s role is to protect the region, not to interfere in partisan disputes. Many now fear that this political and military power struggle could trigger another civil war in Tigray.
The current crisis traces back to August 2024, when a faction of the TPLF led by Debretsion Gebremichael (PhD) held a congress without following the legal procedures set by the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). Since the congress did not adhere to NEBE’s regulations, the board did not recognize it, leading many to consider it an illegitimate gathering. This congress resulted in leadership decisions that sidelined the president of Tigray Interim Administration Getachew Reda. The Tigray Interim Administration and other political actors denounced this move, labeling it an attempt to seize power outside the legal framework.
The situation escalated further when senior military commanders aligned themselves with the faction that held the unrecognized congress, despite the army’s mandate to remain neutral. Since then, these commanders have repeatedly demanded the restructuring of Interim Administration, insisting that it be replaced by officials from their allied faction.
One of the key figures in this crisis, General John Medid, has been recorded stating that they will enforce the faction’s decisions by force, vowing to take action against any opposition. This has intensified fears of military rule replacing civilian governance in Tigray.
Tensions boiled over into violence recently when armed forces from Army 26, loyal to the faction that held the unrecognized congress, stormed the Seharti district administration. The district administrator was holding a meeting with local farmers to discuss irrigation projects when armed individuals arrived, demanding the official government seal. When the administrator refused, the group left, only to return hours later with a larger armed force. They forcibly took the seal—an act seen as a clear attempt to seize administrative control. When farmers protested, the armed forces responded with violence. One farmer was shot and seriously injured, while several others were beaten with rifle butts.
This brutal attack has further deepened public anger, with many viewing it as the first step in an attempted military takeover of the Tigray administration.
The growing political-military crisis in Tigray is dangerously close to triggering another civil war. The army’s direct involvement in political affairs threatens to fragment Tigray’s defense forces, potentially leading to violent clashes between opposing factions. The military’s intervention undermines the legitimacy of the Tigray Interim Administration, potentially leading to a parallel administration enforced by armed groups. The violent crackdown in Seharti has fueled public outrage. If similar actions continue, widespread civilian uprisings could erupt, further escalating tensions. If this crisis spirals into armed conflict, it could draw in external actors, leading to a broader destabilization of the Horn of Africa.
With Tigray teetering on the edge of renewed war, urgent international action is needed to prevent further bloodshed. The international community must condemn military interference and demand an immediate withdrawal of armed forces from political disputes. Urgent peace talks between the divided TPLF factions and Tigray Interim Administration must be facilitated to prevent further escalation. Independent monitors should be deployed to investigate human rights abuses and ensure accountability. There must also be support for democratic governance by strengthening civilian institutions and preventing military overreach.
The consequences of inaction could be catastrophic. If the situation is not defused immediately, Tigray could descend into another devastating civil war, reversing the fragile peace process and bringing further suffering to its people. The time to act is now. AS
