Addis Abeba– Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, Vice President and Democratization Cabinet Secretariat of the Tigray Interim Administration, has warned that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea “seems inevitable,” with preparations reaching their “final stages” and Tigray at risk of becoming the main battleground.
“At any moment, war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out,” Tsadkan, who was formerly Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian Defense Forces, wrote in a commentary for The Africa Report, warning that the conflict could spread beyond the two countries, affecting Sudan and the Red Sea region. “Tigray would prefer to stay out of such a conflict and promote peace,” he said, but added that the “option for peace may be narrowing, leaving war as the only option.”
He argued that the alliance between Addis Abeba and Asmara has “gradually deteriorated” since the Pretoria peace agreement, making war increasingly likely. “Preparations are in their final stages,” he said, cautioning that once they reach a certain point, “it becomes very hard to hold [them] back.”
He accused Eritrea of pursuing “predatory state behavior” and seeking to “take advantage of countries around it, particularly Ethiopia and Sudan.” He claimed Eritrea views Tigray as “the main obstacle” to its ambitions and warned that Asmara is preparing for war to “finish what Isaias has termed Tekolifna—we have been frustrated—after the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA).”
Tsadkan also warned that divisions within Tigray could further complicate the situation. “Those in the fragmented TPLF and military who want to protect their past and current misdeeds would prefer to protect themselves by joining Isaias in alliance,” he wrote. He alleged that some Tigrayan leaders see Eritrea as a tool to remove Abiy Ahmed before eventually turning against Eritrea itself. “The taste for power with total impunity has not left this group,” he said, accusing them of “indifference to the fate of the people of Tigray.”
Former Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome has similarly accused Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki of attempting to “exploit divisions within the TPLF” to weaken the Pretoria Peace Agreement. In a February 17 opinion piece for Al Jazeera, Mulatu warned that Isaias’s actions could “reignite war in northern Ethiopia” and “tear up the whole peace deal.” He further alleged that Eritrea is supporting “divisions within the TPLF” and “engineering a militia in Ethiopia’s Amhara state” to undermine stability.
Eritrea has rejected these allegations, with Information Minister Yemane G. Meskel calling them an “audacious claim” meant to “rationalize a war-mongering agenda.” Eritrea argued that Ethiopia’s internal crises should not be externalized, stating, “The myriad problems besetting the region originate from Ethiopia, not elsewhere.” It also dismissed claims of military presence in Ethiopia, saying the Pretoria Agreement is “an internal Ethiopian matter.”
Tsadkan stated that a renewed war would have “devastating consequences,” warning that “when the war ends, the geography of the states as we now recognize them will not be the same.” He predicted “major political re-alignments in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea arena,” particularly if global attention remains focused elsewhere, including “Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.”
Tsadkan argued that Tigray’s best option is to “avert war” and push for the “full implementation of the Pretoria agreement.” He urged the Ethiopian government and international partners to “step in and avert another disastrous war at the eleventh hour.” However, he warned that “if the effort to deter war fails, the shortest termination of the war by all means—military or diplomatic—is in the best interest of Tigray and the region.” AS
