In-depth: Navigating through the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam negotiations, future outcomes

By Abdi Biyenssa @ABiyenssa and Million Beyene @MillionBeyene

Addis Abeba – After a span of 12 years, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has reached a significant milestone. On September 11, 2023, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the completion of the dam’s “fourth and final” water-filling stage. To mark this momentous occasion, state-owned media outlets aired captivating video footage of top government officials, both federal and regional, uniting at the GERD project site to commemorate the reservoir’s fourth filling.

During the event, Kifle Horo, the project manager, revealed that 42 billion cubic meters of water now reside within the reservoir, while the overall project completion stands at 93%. Additionally, Kifle shared that the dam stands at a height of 620 meters, with only 25 meters left before it reaches the final height of 645 meters.

The Prime Minister, however, emphasized the challenging path, recognizing both the hardships from within and those coming from the outside. “Numerous obstacles came our way, but through unfaltering belief and determination, we pushed through and arrived at this critical juncture.”

While Ethiopians celebrate this achievement, it has not been without controversy in Egypt. The Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs protested, claiming that the water filling disregarded the interests and water security of downstream nations and arguing that it violated international law.

The allocation and management of the Nile’s waters have long been a contentious topic between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan. Egypt’s argument, based on the 1959 agreement with Sudan as the legal foundation for the Nile’s water allocation, has faced strong opposition from Ethiopia and other upstream riparian states. Tirusew Assefa, a water expert and professor at the University of South Florida, stressed that this is a sign that Egypt doesn’t want Ethiopia to use the Nile River entirely.

While Egypt persistently expressed grave concerns about GERD’s impact on its water security, Addis Abeba firmly maintains that the dam will not hinder the Nile’s water flow. Ethiopian authorities argue that the dam will provide essential benefits for nations in the region, including serving as a reliable source of affordable electric power and effectively managing overflowing of the river and water salinity control.

Since 2014, the three countries have engaged in a series of tripartite talks in an attempt to find a resolution. In 2015, they signed the Declaration of Principles but failed to reach a final agreement on a technical matter. Egypt invoked Article No. 10 of the Declaration of Principles in 2019, blaming Addis Abeba for hindering progress. This article states that if the three countries cannot resolve their disputes, mediation should be sought.

Under the leadership of former President Donald Trump, the United States attempted to broker tripartite discussions in the presence of representatives from the World Bank. However, no tangible outcomes were achieved during these talks.

Ethiopia has expressed a preference for the involvement of the African Union in the negotiation process. In 2021, Dina Mufti, the then spokesperson for Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, emphasized that although Ethiopia generally opposes mediation by external parties, it welcomes the African Union’s assistance. Dina stated that the tripartite talks regarding the GERD should be concluded between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt themselves, without the need for mediators. “Mediators should focus on facilitating the discussions rather than dictating the process to the involved parties,” he said.

However, multiple AU-led attempts to break the deadlock over the grand dam in 2021 didn’t bear fruit, with Ethiopia accusing the two lower riparian countries Egypt and Sudan to have disrupted the process nine times undermining the genuine efforts of the union and blocking a productive discussion. Later, Ethiopia also rejected attempts made by Egypt and Sudan to seeking the involvement of the UN Security Council over the GERD issue.

Yet, a new player seems to have emerged in the scene, as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) recently step in to the process. On 27 August 2023, the Ethiopian federal government’s communication service indicated that talks held in UAE’s capital Abu Dhabi collapsed after it reached a stage to draft an agreement. In an exclusive interview with Addis Standard, Sheikh Shakhboot Nahyan Al Nahyan, the UAE’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, who attaches great importance to the stability of the Horn of Africa and the well-being of its people, emphasized that a successful conclusion of negotiations on the GERD is within reach.

Unfortunately, his wish for a successful conclusion did not come true as Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan had concluded two days of tripartite negotiations, held in Cairo a month ago, ended with no significant progress. The negotiations which is set to continue in Addis Abeba this September was held following the meeting between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi of Egypt in Cairo on 12 July, where they agreed to finalize GERD filling, rules of operations agreement in four months.

Gashaw Ayferam, a hydro-politics expert and a doctoral candidate in Political Science and International Relations at Addis Ababa University, expresses doubts regarding the forthcoming meetings’ ability to yield significant results. Gashaw highlights that the issues surrounding the Nile extend beyond Egypt’s position on water usage; they encompass governmental legitimacy, cultural identity, economic interests, and broader regional political influence. Furthermore, he underlines the vital role of Egypt’s internal politics, implying that a speedy resolution may not be realistic.

Tirusew concurs with Gashaw’s viewpoint, stating that unless unforeseen circumstances arise from the Egyptian side, the imminent negotiations may fail to yield significant alterations. He further elaborates that, subsequent to the Cairo conference, the Minister of Water and Irrigation of Egypt stressed that the lack of advancement in the three-party negotiations predominantly stems from Ethiopia’s resolute position. “The forthcoming discussions will mainly concentrate on the resolution of this contentious matter.”

Gitore Isaias, a hydro-diplomatic researcher, also doubts a breakthrough during the upcoming negotiations given internal political implications of major compromise from the Ethiopians side. “A slight backtracking by the government may trigger country-wide unrest as many opposition political groups may want to use the matter to their merits” he noted, further adding that it may aggravate tensions between Oromo and Amhara elites within the ruling Prosperity Party.

Deadlock over ‘Binding Agreement’

Ethiopia has repeatedly accused Egypt over the tendency to stick to the status quo of the colonial era agreements under the name of reaching binding agreement under international law. According to Dr Tirusew, Egypt’s long sought binding agreement on operation of the dam and other legal issues including how much water Ethiopia will release downstream during prolonged drought and how the three countries will resolve any future disputes, is unacceptable as it restricts Ethiopia from entirely using the Nile waters during drought.

He further explained that through the binding agreement Egypt seeks to limit any future use of the Nile waters by Ethiopia including for irrigation etc.  Ethiopia had already taken Egypt’s interests into account in previous negotiation proposals and there is no need for further compromise with regard to the binding agreement, Tirusew argues.

Seleshi Bekele (PhD), the Ethiopian Ambassador to the United States and head of the Ethiopian negotiation team with the rank of minister, recently told the state media that the push from negotiators of the downstream countries, particularly Egypt, to bind Ethiopia from possible future developments on the river is against the national interest of Ethiopia. He reiterated Ethiopia’s natural and legal right to utilize its water resources fairly and equitably without causing significant harm to downstream countries.

The major point of contention in the negotiation process, according to ambassador Seleshi, has been drought mitigation, and he said “we are being careful not to slide into determining water shares as the drought mitigation negotiation involves numbers”. He added that the agreement must not bring foreclosures to future development projects on the Nile river.

Nevertheless, the ambassador said significant progress has been made during the initial two-day negotiation phase in Cairo, and highlighted that the team successfully introduced revisions and fresh perspectives to nine out of the 16 articles outlined in the negotiation framework. He stated that the upcoming session will prioritize refining the remaining seven articles. The ultimate goal is to reach a consensus that aligns with the aspirations of all participants involved in the discussions.

Sudan’s Inconsistency

However, the negotiating table has become increasingly unstable, largely due to Sudan’s inconsistent position on the GERD, especially in recent times. Initially, Sudan supported Ethiopia’s stance on the issue, but this changed after the ousting of former Sudanese leader Omar al-Bashir in response to a popular uprising. Since 2021, Sudan’s rhetoric during negotiations has shifted from a welcoming attitude to one of suspicion and hostility.

In 2021, Ethiopia said the questions of dam safety and information exchange that were raised by the Sudanese side have been adequately addressed and they could not be reasons for complaint at all. In January 2023, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed visited Sudan, marking the first visit since the military coup by al-Burhan in 2021. During this one-day visit, al-Burhan emphasized the alignment and agreement between Sudan and Ethiopia on all matters related to the GERD. Nevertheless, Cairo and Khartoum have been strengthening their military collaboration, as seen in the signing of a comprehensive military cooperation agreement in March 2021. This agreement focused on areas such as training and border security.

Gitore highlighted the significant influence of Egypt on the political landscape of Sudan. “Egyptians play a prominent role as key players in Sudanese politics, a phenomenon observed not only in the present but also throughout history.” Various reports also suggest that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has consistently expressed support for Sudan’s army and pro-army political parties, actively working to enhance relations between the two nations. However, the dynamics have been altered by the civil war that erupted in April 2023 between the Sudanese armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.

Gitore indicates that this conflict, involving neighboring countries and influential nations directly and indirectly, makes it challenging to anticipate which side will gain the upper hand. Gitore emphasizes the importance of Ethiopia closely monitoring the situation and adjusting its approach accordingly. However, if Ethiopia fails to do so, he predicts that Egypt could potentially dominate the negotiation process by leveraging its significant influence in Sudan, ultimately playing a vital role in shaping Sudan’s foreign policy. “It is inevitable that the outcome of the civil war will influence Sudan’s stance on the GERD.”

According to Gitore, in addition to the outcome of the civil war in Sudan, Ethiopia’s current political and security issues could also strengthen Egypt’s influence in the region. He also emphasizes the necessity of improving Ethiopia’s strained relations with the western world, pointing out that its bargaining power in international politics and diplomacy has declined. AS