In-depth Analysis: Why resolving war in Oromia through peace talks is long overdue
Addis Abeba on the day of the welcome gathering for OLF’s leadership return from exile in September 2018. (Photo Credit: Deutsche Welle)
By Abdi Biyenssa @ABiyenssa
Addis Abeba – The war in Oromia, which involves the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) on one hand and the federal and Oromia regional governments security forces on the other, has been ongoing for five years mainly within the Oromia region but affecting the neighboring Benishangul Gumuz, Gambella and Amhara regions at different times.
The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which the government often refers to as Shane and designated as a “terrorist organization” in May 2021, stated in its recently published brief political manifesto that it stands and is fighting for “the freedom of the Oromo people from political exclusion, economic exploitation, and socio-cultural marginalization.”
Over the past five years, the intensity of the fighting between OLA and the government forces showed no sign of easing, and has dramatically increased over the last two years, causing countless loss of lives, gross violation of human rights and immeasurable destruction against civilian infrastructure in the region and beyond. Despite that, however, and due partly to the complexities involved, the war received little to no attention both among domestic media and policy makers and Ethiopia’s international partners until recently.
The re-escalation of fighting after the first round of talks has tarnished the hopes of millions of people in Oromia region who endured multifaceted sufferings ranging from extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, abductions and forced disappearances
But as of late, calls both from local and international communities pressuring the warring parties to end the war through peaceful means have grown inescapably louder, forcing the two warring parties’ to eventually agree to meet face to face and hold talks.
Subsequently, the two sided met from 25 April to 03 May and held talks in the semi-autonomous island of Zanzibar, Tanzania
The first round talks were described by both parties as constructive, but both said it was not possible to reach an agreement on sticking issues. Regardless, they both agreed to continue the talks “with a view to resolving the conflict permanently and peacefully”.
OLA fighters. Photo: Social Media
Back to square one
However, soon after the conclusion of the talks, intense fighting supported with heavy weaponry resumed in several parts of the Oromia region, resulting in yet another civilian casualties.
The escalation of fighting after the first round of peace talks has tarnished the hopes of millions of people in Oromia region who endured multifaceted sufferings ranging from extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, abductions and forced disappearances to several other socio-economic complications as a result of the five years war. The war has disrupted daily activities of the people and functions of the local government branches mainly in Western, Southern and Central zones of the region.
A resident of Agamsa town, in Horro Guduru Wollega zone, one of the conflict prone zones in Western Oromia, who spoke to Addis Standard on conditions of anonymity for safety reason said interruptions of basic services such as telecom and banking services in the area over the past years due to the persistent insecurity has made the life of local residents strenuous.
“We travel 65 kilometers only to receive 500 to 1000 birr from our salary. When we ask for our full salary, the bank tells us that there is not enough money”
Fincha Sugar Factory employee
The resident who is an employee of Fincha Sugar Factory that recently stopped production due to the insecurity, said five months have passed since he took his full salary, as there is no banking service in Agamsa town.
“We travel 65 kilometers only to receive 500 to 1000 birr from our salary. When we ask for our full salary, the bank tells us that there is not enough money” he said.
The resident added that lack of transport on the road that connects Agemsa town to Addis Abeba, nearby Kombosha town, and interruption of telephone service in the area have exposed the locals to a great deal of suffering.
“There is no transport for many years now and people are facing difficulties to even mourn and bury their deceased family members as a result,” he said.
The resident also noted that the local people have become vulnerable to dire human rights violations as government forces stationed in the area often imprison and harass them, accusing them of feeding and supporting Shane.
“Torn apart in between”
Another resident in the Gida Ayana district, in neighboring East Wollega zone, who also spoke to Addis Standard on conditions of anonymity, said that his brother is in a critical health condition after failing to get adequate treatment as there is no ambulance service, due to lack of transportation in the area.
Furthermore, locals are compelled to feed, and at times, contribute money to armed groups out of their destitution, the resident said.
“They take whatever you have, be it cattle, crops and cash. They will abduct a person and demand family members to pay ransom”
An elderly resident of Gindeberet
This is corroborated by an elderly woman from Gindeberet district of the West Shewa zone, in Oromia region. Like many, her name is concealed for safety reasons. According to her, one can barely find a household that is not forced to pay money to members of the rebels in her remote village. “They take whatever you have, be it cattle, crops and cash. They will abduct a person and demand family members to pay ransom,” she said.
The militants roam most of the rural villages freely and retreat to the bushes upon a rare deployment of government soldiers. According to the elderly woman, government soldiers also confiscate money, crops and cattle from locals on the account that it doesn’t fall in the hands of the rebel fighters.
A year ago in May 2022, news of summary executions and civilian casualties after intense airstrikes by government forces after the regional government vowed to take measures against forces of Shane in the neighboring north Shewa zone had shocked many.
Such stories are the quintessential characteristics of the war over the last five years, tearing communities apart.
“We, the poor, are the ones torn apart in between,” the elderly woman in Gindeberet said, “there is no household that you could go to and drink water let alone get fed as it was during the peaceful times,” she said.
Local farmers are not able to bring to the market the little products they could produce amidst insecurities, and what is left of confiscations remain far from market areas due to lack of transportation. This has caused the cost of living to skyrocket for the peasantry and lower income civilians, she said. Those who possess anything that is worth money are selling it whenever possible and fleeing to towns and cities, where they think safety is, she added.
The residents in Goro Dola district of East Guji zone in Southern Oromia have no different story to tell from an area where ransom demands after abductions by armed groups are growing rampant.
As early as 2018, Rights groups have documented profound violations of human rights in the two Guji zones, where fighting where the fighting continued until today.
In January this year, OLA fighters broke into a zonal correction facility in Bule Hora town, in West Guji Zone and set more than 480 prisoners free.
A sign of the protracted war, the prison break took place barely a week after the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) pronounced a renewed military operation in southern Oromia, including the two Guji zones, aiming to destroying the rebel group operating in the area and stabilizing the region “has been successful”, and that it has liberated several villages in the area from the control of the rebels.
Both OLA and government forces have repeatedly denied deliberately targeting civilians and forcing civilians to assist their operations in various parts of the region.
Economy under duress
A resident from Gelana woreda of the Guji zone told Addis Standard that the war between the Oromo Liberation Army and government forces has long restricted the mobility of the semi-pastoralist community in the area, resulting in lack of enough grassland for livestock even as the ongoing severe drought continued devouring their precious livestock.
Socio-economic activities in most rural areas of Oromia have become frail, and aid workers continued expressing concerns that this might significantly increase the number of people relying on aid in the region in the coming years.
“No one is planting/harvesting in the entire district of Jardega Jarte, two villages/kebeles of Haro Buluq, and 20 out of 24 villages in Amuru districts because of the precarious security situation”
Biyansa Desso
Biyansa Desso, an aid worker at a local NGO, Akimon Initiative for Development, told Addis Standard that in Horo Guduru Wollega zone, for example, learning and teaching process starting from primary to preparatory school stopped has stopped in all villages of the Jardega Jarte district, where health services are also defunct and lack of basic medicine is rampant.
“No one is planting/harvesting in the entire district of Jardega Jarte, two villages/kebeles of Haro Buluq, and 20 out of 24 villages in Amuru districts because of the precarious security situation,” he said, adding that many people have abandoned their farms and are displaced from their homes as a result of the war.
A report by the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC) released in September last year revealed that more than 60 people from the Oromo community were massacred in various districts in Western Oromia, including Amuru district, during the course of two days attack by armed men who gathered both from the local areas and those who crossed from the neighboring districts of the Amhara regional state. The resident of Jardega Jarte, Kiremu and Abe Dongoro woredas in the same zone were leaving for fear of similar attacks, the report said.
Asebe Regassa (PhD) professor of developmental studies at the University of Zurich, in Switzerland who is also current president of the Oromo Studies Association (OSA) on his part told Addis Standard that civilians infrastructure, including network and transportation systems, have been rendered dysfunctional in most part of conflict affected Oromia.
Migration of the young, productive age, the working force from rural areas to relatively stable urban areas, fleeing persecution in the name of Shane is highly affecting the local economy, according to Asebe.
Damages of the war are not only limited to civilian infrastructure, according to Asebe, but includes human capital and institutions that are necessary to maintain an economy by delivering services to the population such as healthcare, financial institutions, government offices, law enforcement, education, among others.
A 2022 report by the UN corroborators Asebe’s assertion. Population’s access to essential services such as education, healthcare or water and sanitation has been “highly compromised because of violence and the destruction of existing infrastructure,” the UN said. Through Western Oromia alone, 426 health facilities were rendered non-functional due to looting and destruction.
In East Wollega, 144 schools were closed leaving 62,000 children out-of-school in 2022 school year. Similarly, in West Wollega, 184 schools were closed, leaving 89,000 students out of school.
Access to markets from rural areas is hindered, while woreda centers are facing shortages of essential supplies due to road blockage. Food deliveries to the affected population are intermittent and incomplete due to a combination of insecurity and budgetary/logistical challenges faced by authorities. Partners are considering ways to ensure food aid is delivered to remote locations.
Far-reaching Consequences
Asebe noted that the political and security implications of the war are far more consequential beyond the Oromia region as the war has stretched to involve more actors from neighboring regional states.
Furthermore Asebe warned that the killings involving the Fano militias in different parts of Western Oromia and the persecution of the Wollo Oromos in the name of Shane backed by the Amhara regional state special forces in the Oromo special zone in Amhara regional state could endanger intra-regional as well as people to people relations.
“The duplication of actors is increasing the depth and intensity of the war with far-reaching security implications for the Oromia regional state, Ethiopia, and the Horn of Africa”
Negera Gudeta
Negera Gudeta, PhD candidate at the Institute of Peace and Security Studies, Addis Abeba University, is another commenter who remarked about the difficulties the involvement of multiple actors could bring in hindering the peaceful resolution of the war. “The duplication of actors is increasing the depth and intensity of the war with far-reaching security implications for the Oromia regional state, Ethiopia, and the Horn of Africa”, Negera told Addis Standard.
The proliferation of actors in the war, including Fano militias who are infiltrating the Oromia region, is exacerbating the vulnerability of the security and the economy, Negera said, adding that the only way out of this crisis is via negotiated settlement, between the warring parties. “Effective and long-lasting peace comes only through dialogue,” he said.
Asebe agrees with Negera’s reasoning on why the war must end through a negotiated settlement, and why lasting peace must be ensured by developing the culture of reconcile and compromise between the competing interests of the parties around the table. This, he said, will further open the political space and suppress the tendency of autocracy.
However, whereas hopes for second round talks remain high among the affected people of Oromia and observers, both the federal government and the OLA said this week that there was no plan as of yet on when and if the second round talks will take place. AS
