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Growth outpaced political reform in Sub-Saharan Africa

Control Risks, the global business risk consultancy, has today launched its annual RiskMap report at an event for East Africa’s business leaders in Nairobi, Kenya.

According to the report Economic growth has outpaced political reform and governments have so far failed to tackle key structural issues. But it suggested that large inward investment in East African energy and the prospect of a resource boom is putting pressure on political arrangements.

The report further predicts 2015 will start to show some of the political limits to sub-Saharan Africa’s growth story and highlighted that terrorism will continue to make headlines in Africa in 2015, but it will remain local. On East Africa piracy levels, the report says it will remain low, reflecting the decline in Somali hijack-for-ransom piracy since mid-2011.

Introducing RiskMap 2015, Daniel Heal, Managing Director East Africa,
Control Risks, said: “2015 is when we will start to see some of the political limits in Africa’s growth story. Governments have so far failed to tackle key structural issues and growth usually occurs despite government rather than because of it.” Kenya, as one of the best-governed countries in the region, is running big deficits and debt loads will double by 2017, he added.

“Large inward investment in East African energy is exciting, but we should remain circumspect. It is too early to say how key issues will play out, from distribution of benefits to legislative and regulatory changes in the pipeline,” Daniel added.

Daniel said it was anticipated that Somalia’s Al-Shabab will lose further territory in 2015, retreating into guerrilla-style hit-and-run attacks in Somalia and potentially against major regional cities such as Nairobi, Mombasa, Kampala and Addis Abeba.

RiskMap is an established, authoritative guide and a key reference point for policy makers and business leaders seeking to plot global trends over the coming year. RiskMap highlights the most significant underlying trends in global risk and security, and provides a detailed view from the markets that will matter most in 2015.

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